全球矿业研究 | 2026年金属市场的七大展望

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the 2026 outlook for the metals and mining sector, focusing on three main themes: persistent safe-haven demand, supply structure changes driving divergence in base metals, and resource security becoming a policy priority [3][4]. Group 1: Precious Metals - Gold is expected to outperform the S&P 500 again in 2026, with an average price projected around $5,000 per ounce [3][6]. - Silver may experience a modest correction after a strong rally, but its average price is still anticipated to be significantly above market consensus [3][5]. Group 2: Supply Structure Changes - The copper market is expected to tighten, with prices likely to remain above $12,000 per ton, while nickel may see a price drop to around $15,000 due to oversupply unless Indonesia intervenes [4][5]. - The alumina market is projected to see price support from cost curves, with a potential decline limited to about 10% [4]. Group 3: Resource Security - Government funding is driving accelerated development of rare earth resources, with an estimated $10 billion in public sector investment expected [4][5]. - U.S. steel tariffs are likely to remain in place, benefiting domestic producers [4]. Group 4: Mining Companies Outlook - Major mining companies are reflecting a rebound in market risk appetite, with a trend of capital reallocation towards tangible assets [9]. - The structural supply constraints in metals, particularly copper, support price resilience, indicating potential upward revisions in profit forecasts [9]. Group 5: Silver Mining Companies - Silver mining companies, including Fresnillo, are expected to maintain strong performance in 2026, benefiting from high precious metal prices and robust operational execution [11]. - The consensus forecast predicts a 44% year-over-year increase in earnings for silver companies in 2026, based on silver and gold prices of $83 and $4,820 per ounce, respectively [11][12].