霍尔木兹若被封，日本将直面两大风险

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential risks to energy security in Japan due to geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, particularly following the assassination of Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei, which raises concerns about a possible blockade of oil shipments [2][4]. Group 1: Geopolitical Context - The Strait of Hormuz is a critical maritime route where one-quarter of global oil trade passes, and it has historically been a site of conflict, including missile attacks on oil tankers during the Iran-Iraq War [4]. - Despite past threats, Iran has never implemented a blockade, likely due to the implications for its own oil exports and the interests of major oil importer China [4]. - The recent assassination of Khamenei has heightened fears that Iran may resort to a full blockade, which could have significant implications for global oil supply [2][4]. Group 2: Impact on Japan's Energy Security - Japan relies on the Middle East for 96% of its oil imports, with most passing through the Strait of Hormuz, making it vulnerable to supply disruptions [5]. - In the event of a prolonged ban on shipping, Japan has approximately 250 days' worth of domestic consumption stored, providing some buffer against immediate supply shocks [5]. - Rising oil prices pose a significant challenge for Japan, especially given the depreciation of the yen, which has already increased procurement costs. The linkage between LNG prices and oil prices further complicates the situation, as Japan's reliance on LNG from the Middle East is about 10% [5].