2026年全球智能手机出货量预创历史新低

Core Viewpoint - The global smartphone shipment is expected to decline significantly due to memory shortages, with a projected decrease of 12.9% in 2026 compared to 2025, reaching a historical low of 1.12 billion units, marking the largest drop in over a decade [2][4]. Group 1: Market Impact - The decline in smartphone shipments is primarily driven by shortages in memory, which is expected to severely impact the shipment of low-cost smartphones [4]. - The Middle East and Africa markets are projected to see a shipment decline of 20.6%, while China is expected to decrease by 10.5%, and the Asia-Pacific region (excluding Japan) is forecasted to drop by 13.1% [5]. Group 2: Structural Changes - IDC indicates that the era of low-cost smartphones is coming to an end, leading to a structural reset in the market, as these devices are likely to remain unprofitable due to ongoing supply constraints and rising component prices [4]. - The impact of memory shortages on low-cost smartphones running Google's Android operating system is particularly severe, leading to squeezed profit margins and necessitating price increases, which may result in a sharp decline in demand [4].