Canalys·2026-03-03 01:04Core Insights - In 2025, global smartphone shipments are expected to grow by 2% to reach 1.25 billion units, marking the highest level since 2021. All regions except Greater China are projected to see year-on-year growth in shipments, while mainland China is expected to experience a slight decline due to underwhelming effects of national subsidy policies [1]. Group 1: Global Smartphone Market Overview - In 2025, iPhone shipments are projected to increase by 7% to 240.6 million units, maintaining Apple's position as the largest smartphone manufacturer globally for the third consecutive year, achieving a record annual shipment [2]. - Samsung is expected to rebound in 2025 after three years of decline, with a 7% year-on-year growth, although its shipments will remain slightly below Apple's [2]. - Xiaomi is anticipated to defend its position among the top three manufacturers in 2025, benefiting from sustained success in the Indian market and stable performance in the domestic market, despite facing pressure towards the end of the year [2]. Group 2: Regional Market Performance - In the Middle East & Africa, TRANSSION is projected to lead with a 33% market share and a 5% annual growth, followed by Samsung at 25% with a significant 20% growth [3]. - In Latin America, Samsung is expected to hold the top position with a 33% market share and a 9% growth, while Xiaomi and Lenovo follow with 18% and 15% shares, respectively [3]. - In the United States, Apple is projected to dominate with a 60% market share and a 4% growth, followed by Samsung at 22% with a 9% increase [8]. Group 3: Key Vendor Rankings in Major Markets - In mainland China, Huawei is expected to lead with a 17% market share and a 2% growth, while Apple and vivo are tied at 16% each, with Apple growing by 7% [6]. - In India, OPPO is projected to be the top vendor with a 23% market share and a 21% growth, followed closely by vivo and Samsung [6]. - In Brazil, Samsung is expected to lead with a 40% market share and a 3% growth, followed by Lenovo and Xiaomi [9].