Canalys·2026-03-02 03:06Core Insights - The global wearable device shipment is expected to exceed 200 million units by 2025, marking a 6% year-on-year growth. Xiaomi has reclaimed the top position with an 18% market share, followed closely by Apple at 17% and Huawei at 16% [1][8]. Market Dynamics - The competition among the top three manufacturers is intense, with their market shares differing by less than 1%. The competitive advantage now relies on seamless integration across devices and the ability to provide profitable value-added data services [3]. - Xiaomi's rise reflects a multi-category systematic strategy rather than dependence on a single flagship product. Its fitness bands continue to solidify sales in the mass market, while its basic smartwatches leverage self-developed chips and deeper ecosystem integration to move up the value chain [3]. - Apple maintains a strong position in the high-end market through 5G connectivity and advanced health features, including blood pressure monitoring, which helps retain high-value user loyalty [3]. - Huawei consolidates its mainstream market position with a broad product portfolio and increased focus on professional sports and medical-grade health applications [3]. Structural Changes in Profitability - AI and subscription services are reshaping the competitive landscape, transitioning from optional features to core drivers of growth and profitability. Wearable devices are continuously optimizing health monitoring, with some manufacturers exploring no-screen or simplified screen designs to enhance comfort and data continuity [4]. - The profitability model for wearable devices is undergoing structural changes, with algorithms and services becoming independent profit centers. Advanced health insights, professional training programs, and AI-driven coaching services are generating ongoing subscription revenue [4]. - For manufacturers with high-priced product lines, subscription services are not just additional income but a crucial buffer for maintaining profitability amid rising component costs [4]. Future Outlook - Omdia forecasts moderate single-digit growth for the global wearable device market in 2026, reflecting ongoing shipment expansion and gradual changes in industry value structure. Growth will increasingly depend on advancements in edge AI and rising demand for specialized sports and health management [7]. - Key physiological metrics, particularly blood glucose and blood pressure monitoring, will drive a new wave of growth for leading smartwatch manufacturers like Apple, Samsung, and Huawei [7]. - Among the three main categories, smartwatches are expected to exhibit the strongest growth momentum, becoming the most expandable AI smart device integration platform due to advanced sensing technology, AI analytical capabilities, and deeper ecosystem connectivity [7]. - The enhancement of subscription and service monetization capabilities is improving profitability and supporting reinvestment in technology and ecosystem development [7]. - Over time, competitive advantages will increasingly depend on the depth of AI capabilities and the strength of cross-device ecosystem integration rather than just shipment scale [7].