时报图说丨“全球油阀”霍尔木兹海峡关闭，石油危机会重演吗？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant rise in oil prices due to escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly following military actions against Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime route for global oil trade [1][2]. Group 1: Impact of the Strait of Hormuz Closure - The Strait of Hormuz, known as the "world's oil valve," handles approximately 20% of global maritime oil trade, making it vital for oil exports from Middle Eastern countries [5][7]. - The closure of the Strait has led to a drastic reduction in shipping traffic, with daily vessel passage dropping from an average of 124 to 44, a decline of over 60% [7]. - The daily oil and product transport capacity of the Strait is about 20 million barrels, with key exporting countries like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Iran heavily reliant on this route for their oil exports [7][12]. Group 2: Oil Price Projections - Historical precedents indicate that geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have previously led to oil price surges, with increases of nearly 200% during past crises [15][16]. - Current projections suggest that if Iranian oil supply is significantly disrupted, Brent crude prices could rise by $10-15 per barrel, with a potential price floor above $70 per barrel [18]. - If the conflict escalates and affects oil transport through the Strait, a scenario similar to the early stages of the Russia-Ukraine conflict could occur, leading to substantial price increases [18]. Group 3: Alternative Transport Capacity - Alternative pipelines, such as Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline and the UAE's Fujairah pipeline, have limited capacities of approximately 800,000 barrels per day combined, which cannot compensate for the nearly 20 million barrels per day that the Strait typically handles [12][13]. - The East-West pipeline can transport 500,000-600,000 barrels per day, while the Fujairah pipeline can handle 150,000-200,000 barrels per day, indicating a significant shortfall in alternative transport options [13]. Group 4: Market Reactions and Risk Premiums - The current risk premium in the oil market is estimated at $18 per barrel, reflecting concerns over a complete shutdown of the Strait for about six weeks [20]. - If the Strait is partially closed, with 50% of traffic affected, oil prices could increase by $4 per barrel [20]. - The article suggests that the market is experiencing a rapid adjustment to geopolitical risk premiums, which will influence future price trajectories [21].