[安泰科]多晶硅周评-市场成交恢复 价格承压下行 （2026年3月4日）

Core Viewpoint - The domestic multi-crystalline silicon market is experiencing a significant price decline due to high inventory levels and weak demand, leading to a downward adjustment phase expected in March [1][2]. Price Trends - The transaction price range for n-type re-investment material is between 45,000 to 53,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 48,300 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 6.58% [1][3]. - The transaction price range for n-type granular silicon is between 43,000 to 45,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 44,000 yuan/ton, showing a week-on-week decline of 12.87% [1][3]. Market Activity - Market activity has slightly improved compared to the pre-holiday period, with 2-3 companies achieving bulk orders, primarily driven by delivery execution rather than demand recovery [1]. - The increase in transaction volume is attributed to companies lowering prices to alleviate inventory pressure, resulting in a significant drop in mainstream transaction prices [1]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - In February, domestic multi-crystalline silicon production was approximately 84,400 tons, a substantial month-on-month decrease of 17.3% [2]. - Despite some production constraints from major companies undergoing maintenance, there was a small-scale resumption of previously reduced capacity, partially offsetting the overall supply contraction [2]. - The downstream silicon wafer segment is operating at low capacity, lacking significant inventory buildup motivation, which further weakens demand support for market prices [2]. Inventory Levels - Social inventory of multi-crystalline silicon has accumulated for seven consecutive months, reaching a high of 480,000 tons by the end of February [1][2]. - The high inventory level is identified as a core issue affecting the market, with the need for inventory digestion becoming increasingly urgent [2].