地缘冲突带火化工品行情，恐慌过后谁被抛售？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of geopolitical tensions, particularly the escalation of the US-Iran conflict and its effects on the chemical industry in China, highlighting a shift from a broad market rally to a phase where performance is increasingly dictated by fundamental factors [4][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - On March 4, the chemical sector experienced a mixed performance after an initial surge, with stocks like Beihua Co. hitting the daily limit up, while others like Chitianhua saw declines [3][6]. - The chemical price index jumped 4.8% over two days, reaching a new high since the second half of 2025, driven by rising oil and gas prices due to supply chain disruptions [6][9]. Group 2: Supply Chain Disruptions - The blockage of the Strait of Hormuz has significantly strained the global chemical supply chain, leading to a rare collective surge in domestic chemical futures, with methanol contracts hitting the daily limit for two consecutive days [6][9]. - Iran has become the second-largest methanol producer globally, and ongoing disruptions could impact energy security in Asia, particularly affecting high-energy-consuming industries [6][9]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Differentiation - As panic subsides, market differentiation is becoming evident, with some stocks experiencing significant declines while others rise, indicating a shift towards fundamentals over sentiment [8][10]. - The methanol sector has led the recent price increases, but analysts suggest that a potential easing of geopolitical tensions could lead to a market correction [8][10]. Group 4: Inventory and Demand Dynamics - Current methanol inventory levels are relatively high, providing a buffer against immediate supply shortages, even if imports do not recover as expected [9][10]. - The production costs of basic chemical products like styrene are closely linked to oil prices, which have risen due to geopolitical risks, thereby increasing overall production costs [9][10].