全球央行购金热情大降八成

Core Viewpoint - The gold market in 2026 is characterized by significant volatility, with prices fluctuating around $5000 per ounce and an annual amplitude exceeding 30%. Central bank gold purchases in January 2026 were only 20% of the average monthly demand since 2025, indicating a broadening demand base for gold reserves despite a slowdown in purchasing momentum [1][2]. Group 1: Central Bank Activities - In January 2026, central bank gold purchases were concentrated in Asia and Eastern Europe, with Uzbekistan's central bank buying 9 tons, raising its reserves to 399 tons, and increasing its gold reserve percentage from 57% in 2020 to 86% [2]. - Malaysia's central bank entered the gold market for the first time since 2018, purchasing 3 tons, bringing its total reserves to 42 tons, which is 5% of its total reserves [2]. - The Bank of Korea plans to include physical gold ETFs in its foreign exchange reserves for the first time since 2013, indicating a renewed interest in gold investments [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Geopolitical Factors - The World Gold Council suggests that the demand from global central banks may become a core trend in 2026, as evidenced by the renewed interest from Malaysia and South Korea in increasing their gold exposure [3]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly between the U.S. and Iran, are expected to maintain high market volatility and could drive gold prices higher in the short term, despite potential profit-taking pressures [3]. Group 3: Risk Management in Precious Metals Trading - Several banks have issued risk warnings and tightened trading rules due to increased volatility in the precious metals market, advising clients to participate in trading rationally [5][6]. - Banks like China Construction Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China have implemented measures such as extending delivery times for physical gold orders and increasing margin requirements for trading [5][7]. - A recent survey indicated that 50% of fund managers view "going long on gold" as the most crowded trade, reflecting heightened interest in gold investments [7].