首次见“4”，2026年中国经济增速目标主动留出空间

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses China's GDP growth target adjustment for 2026 to a range of 4.5% to 5%, indicating a shift in economic strategy while maintaining confidence in long-term growth potential [2][14]. Group 1: GDP Growth Target Adjustment - The Chinese government has set the GDP growth target for 2026 at 4.5% to 5%, marking the first time the target falls below 5% since the reform and opening up, except for 2020 [2][3]. - Historical analysis shows that China has adjusted its GDP growth targets approximately every five years, moving from around 8% (2007-2011) to 7% (2012), 6% (2016), and now to 5% (2022) [2][13]. - Experts believe that the new target does not signify an entry into a "4% era" but reflects a pragmatic approach to current economic challenges [3][14]. Group 2: Economic Contributions and Challenges - China has contributed approximately 30% to global economic growth annually over the past five years, with an average GDP growth rate of 5.4% during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [4]. - The article highlights that as economies grow, the marginal returns on labor, land, and capital diminish, leading to a natural slowdown in GDP growth rates [5]. - Current economic challenges include supply-demand imbalances and the impact of the real estate sector, which remains under pressure [6][7]. Group 3: Policy Implications and Future Outlook - The adjustment in GDP growth targets is seen as a way to create space for structural adjustments and risk prevention, aligning with the "correct view of performance" emphasized by the government [9][10]. - Experts suggest that maintaining a growth target of 4.5% to 5% allows for flexibility in economic restructuring and high-quality development [7][10]. - The focus is shifting from merely achieving high growth rates to ensuring sustainable and equitable growth, with an emphasis on improving the distribution of economic benefits [11][15]. Group 4: Long-term Growth Potential - To achieve the 2035 goal of reaching a per capita GDP comparable to that of moderately developed countries, China needs to maintain an average annual GDP growth rate of around 4.4% to 4.5% from 2026 to 2035 [13][15]. - Experts predict that if structural adjustments are effectively managed, the internal growth momentum could be fully unleashed, leading to better-than-expected economic performance as 2035 approaches [14][15].