中东冲突令美债交易员押注美联储今年零降息，密切关注2月非农数据

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing Middle East conflict is raising concerns about inflation, leading bond traders to bet on the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged for the year [3][5]. Group 1: Market Reactions and Predictions - Bond traders have increased the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping the benchmark interest rate unchanged by the end of the year to 25.44%, up from 17.44% before the conflict escalated [5]. - The likelihood of maintaining rates has become the highest scenario, while expectations for more than two rate cuts have dropped significantly from 33.18% to 23.30% [6]. - The bond market has seen a sell-off due to reduced expectations for rate cuts, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising to its highest level in weeks [7]. Group 2: Employment Data and Economic Indicators - Investors are closely monitoring the upcoming February non-farm payroll data for clues on interest rate cuts, with expectations of a modest increase of 55,000 jobs [9][10]. - The unemployment rate is expected to remain stable at 4.3%, indicating a steady labor market [10]. - Economic analysts suggest that unless the employment data is significantly disappointing, it is unlikely to alter the prevailing market expectations of a stable labor market [10][11]. Group 3: Inflation Concerns and Federal Reserve Policy - Rising oil prices due to geopolitical tensions are complicating the narrative of global deflation and making central banks, including the Federal Reserve, more cautious about monetary easing [7][11]. - The current inflation rate in the U.S. remains stubbornly above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, with the preferred inflation measure recorded at 2.9% last year [11].