【安泰科】工业硅周评—期现分化震荡筑底，供需博弈等待破局（2026年2月26日–3月5日）

Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon market continues to exhibit a "weak supply and demand" pattern, with futures prices supported by cost factors and a slight recovery in macro sentiment, while the spot market remains stagnant [1][4]. Supply Side Summary - Post-Spring Festival, production has seen a slight increase due to the resumption of operations, particularly in Xinjiang, where pre-holiday production cuts were effective in reducing inventory levels [2]. - In the Southwest region, high electricity costs and seasonal drought conditions have kept operational rates low, with Yunnan operating at less than 10% and Sichuan nearly at zero [2]. - Inner Mongolia's production is constrained due to slow resumption after pre-holiday cuts, while Gansu's operations remain stable despite ongoing losses due to long-term contracts [2]. Demand Side Summary - Overall demand recovery post-holiday has been weaker than expected, particularly in the polysilicon sector, where high inventory levels and price declines have limited procurement [3]. - The organic silicon market shows signs of reduced demand support due to new production cuts, while the aluminum alloy sector is experiencing slow recovery due to low construction activity and a slowdown in automotive growth [3]. - Export markets are affected by fluctuations in photovoltaic component policies and exchange rates, with domestic prices remaining firm despite weak overseas demand [3]. Market Dynamics Summary - The market is characterized by a three-way interplay of rising cost support, realized supply contraction, and weak demand recovery [4]. - Short-term price expectations for industrial silicon suggest a continued oscillation around a stable bottom, with limited upward drivers from supply releases and downward pressure from demand constraints [4]. - The focus remains on the resumption pace of major producers in Xinjiang and the inventory reduction progress in polysilicon [4].