走向精算收益时代，“沙戈荒”如何重塑“十五五”能源投资版图

Core Viewpoint - The "Shago Desert" renewable energy base is becoming a crucial lever for promoting green low-carbon transformation and driving domestic energy investment and industrial upgrades [3]. Group 1: Development of "Shago Desert" Renewable Energy Base - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has proposed 109 major projects in the 14th Five-Year Plan, including the "Shago Desert" renewable energy base, which is expected to involve investments exceeding one trillion yuan [3]. - The first batch of "Shago Desert" renewable energy bases has been constructed and put into operation, with expectations for the second and third batches to achieve over 50 million kilowatts of installed capacity during the 14th Five-Year Plan [3][5]. - By the end of 2024, the first batch of large bases is expected to have an installed capacity of 91.99 million kilowatts, accounting for approximately 95%, with 90.79 million kilowatts already in operation [5]. Group 2: Challenges and Solutions - The "Shago Desert" renewable energy base faces challenges in green electricity generation and transmission, leading to a shift towards a profitability-focused era during the 14th Five-Year Plan [3][7]. - The utilization rates of photovoltaic and wind power in regions like Qinghai, Tibet, Xinjiang, and Gansu have dropped below 90%, indicating significant issues with power transmission and consumption [7]. - To address these challenges, investments in ultra-high voltage transmission channels and advancements in key technologies for wind and solar storage are deemed essential for the continued development of the "Shago Desert" renewable energy base [7][9]. Group 3: Future Layout and Integration - The rapid expansion of the "Shago Desert" renewable energy base is accompanied by a need for integrated development of new energy sources, with a focus on enhancing the power system's regulation capabilities [8]. - The industry anticipates a shift towards large-scale and market-oriented new energy storage solutions, with projects in Xinjiang focusing on long-duration storage systems that can significantly improve renewable energy utilization rates [9]. - The National Grid plans to increase its fixed asset investment to 4 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan, aiming to create a smarter and greener grid system to support energy transmission from the "Shago Desert" and other large clean energy bases [7].