债市迎关键指引！基金经理：基本面支撑依然稳健，继续看好国内债券市场

Core Viewpoint - The government work report for 2026 sets a GDP growth target of 4.5% to 5%, reflecting a commitment to high-quality development and a proactive policy stance [2]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Policy - The report indicates a shift from short-term stimulus to long-term support for the bond market, with a stable macro environment expected to benefit bond fundamentals [2]. - The fiscal deficit is maintained at a high level of 4%, with all incremental deficits borne by the central government, indicating a strategy of central leverage and reduced pressure on local governments [2]. - Fund managers believe that the supply pressure of government bonds is expected to decrease this year, leading to an improvement in the bond supply-demand relationship [2]. Group 2: Monetary and Fiscal Policy Coordination - The deep coordination between monetary and fiscal policies is a focal point, with expectations of a downward adjustment in overall economic growth targets [3]. - Despite limited room for further monetary easing, the monetary policy will continue to support liquidity, benefiting bond market performance [3]. - The current interest rate levels are seen as appropriate, with a stable liquidity outlook supporting a positive medium-term trend for the bond market [3]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Investment Strategy - Some fund companies express caution, noting that the bond market faces headwinds due to already priced-in easing expectations and historically low yield spreads [4]. - The report does not signal unexpected easing, but the fundamental support for the bond market remains intact, with fiscal policies aimed at promoting domestic demand [4]. - The strategy of increasing bond allocations during market adjustments is considered relatively advantageous in the current environment [4].