中国乳业，到了转型关键节点

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese dairy industry is at a critical transformation point, facing issues of overproduction of raw milk and high dependency on imported key raw materials, leading to an imbalance in the industry structure characterized by "low-end surplus and high-end shortage" [1][3][4]. Group 1: Industry Challenges - The dairy farming sector is projected to incur a cumulative income loss of 70 billion yuan from 2023 to 2025, with losses from fresh milk powder reaching 20 billion yuan [1]. - China is the largest importer of whey powder, accounting for 20% of global imports, with imports increasing from 376,000 tons in 2012 to 599,000 tons in 2022, reflecting an annual growth rate of approximately 4.8% [3]. - The current structure of the dairy industry shows that liquid milk accounts for 92.7% of production, while high-value products like cheese and butter make up less than 7.3%, indicating a significant imbalance [4]. Group 2: Need for Deep Processing - Developing key technologies and deep processing capabilities is essential to enhance the value of raw milk and optimize product structure, addressing the overproduction issue [4][5]. - Deep processing serves as a "reservoir" to regulate raw milk production and can significantly improve the overall utilization efficiency of raw materials, breaking the long-standing dependency on imports [5]. - Companies like Yili and Mengniu are making strides in deep processing, with Yili achieving over 90% retention of lactoferrin in milk and Mengniu launching high-value products like mascarpone cheese [6][8]. Group 3: Regulatory and Standardization Issues - The development of high-value functional raw materials is hindered by outdated regulations and standards, which restrict innovation and application of new technologies [8][9]. - Current regulations only allow the use of raw milk for deep processing, limiting the practical application of advanced extraction technologies [8]. - There is a growing global demand for high-quality proteins related to adult health, but domestic companies face challenges in scaling up production due to limited raw material types [8][9]. Group 4: Recommendations for Improvement - It is suggested to adjust and improve relevant laws and regulations to support the rapid development of dairy deep processing technologies while ensuring strict oversight of infant formula production [9][10]. - Establishing a comprehensive support system for the entire dairy supply chain, including the construction of processing parks and digital transformation, is recommended to enhance industry resilience [13]. - A focus on cultivating a skilled workforce in core R&D and engineering is essential for driving high-quality development in the dairy sector [11].