高市支持率又跌了！中东局势威胁日本能源命脉，企业涨薪可能也悬了

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant impact of the recent fluctuations in international oil prices on the Japanese stock market and economy, highlighting concerns over energy supply stability amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [3]. Group 1: Stock Market Reaction - On March 9, the Nikkei 225 index experienced a sharp decline, closing down 5.4%, marking the largest single-day drop since April 2025, with intraday losses exceeding 7.5% [3]. - Following the drop, the Nikkei 225 index rebounded by 2.58% to 54,091.10 points on March 10 [3]. Group 2: Public Sentiment and Energy Dependency - A recent poll indicated that 85.4% of Japanese respondents expressed concern about the Middle East situation following the U.S. and Israel's actions against Iran, with only 13.7% not worried [5]. - Japan relies heavily on imports for energy, with 92% of crude oil and 81% of liquefied natural gas sourced from abroad, primarily from Middle Eastern countries [5]. Group 3: Strategic Oil Reserves - As of December 2022, Japan's total oil reserves can sustain domestic consumption for 254 days, with 146 days held by the government and 101 days by the private sector [6]. - The Japanese government is debating whether to release strategic oil reserves in response to the escalating Middle East situation, with preparations already underway at various oil reserve bases [6]. Group 4: Economic Implications and Central Bank Dilemma - The Bank of Japan faces challenges in adjusting interest rates due to the potential negative impact of rising oil prices and a weakening yen on the economy [8]. - Economists predict that the ongoing conflict could lead to a 35% increase in international oil prices, affecting domestic costs for oil and electricity [8]. - The current geopolitical tensions coincide with the critical spring labor negotiations, with large enterprises having raised wages by an average of 5.39% in the previous year [9]. Group 5: Impact on Small and Medium Enterprises - The ongoing Middle East tensions are expected to disrupt wage increase plans for small and medium enterprises in Japan, which have already lagged behind larger companies in wage growth [10]. - The negative effects of rising raw material costs and yen depreciation are anticipated to further strain the financial conditions of these smaller businesses, impacting their ability to raise wages [10].