恒生科技迎左侧逐步布局机会！专访中金公司首席海外与港股策略分析师刘刚

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has underperformed compared to the A-share market since the beginning of 2026, particularly the Hang Seng Tech Index, which has seen a significant decline, raising concerns among investors about liquidity and market conditions [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance and Trends - The Hang Seng Tech Index has dropped over 20% since October of the previous year, indicating a technical bear market [4]. - The overall credit cycle is expected to experience a slowdown in 2026, which will necessitate profit recovery for index-level growth, rather than relying solely on valuation and risk premium expansion [2][8]. - The market's focus remains on AI technology and cyclical sectors, with technological innovation being a core strategy for the "14th Five-Year Plan" [2][8]. Group 2: Liquidity and Funding Changes - Hong Kong stocks are more sensitive to external market liquidity, particularly due to concerns over tightening global liquidity following the nomination of a hawkish Federal Reserve chair [5]. - There is a significant increase in IPOs and refinancing activities in Hong Kong, which, combined with the strong performance of A-shares, diverts southbound capital attention, creating a "seesaw" effect between the two markets [5][9]. Group 3: Valuation Insights - The Hang Seng Tech Index has seen a shift away from its unique structures, such as internet technology and innovative pharmaceuticals, leading to underperformance compared to A-shares [6]. - Concerns about the ability of major tech companies to convert AI capital expenditures into cash flow have affected investor sentiment, particularly regarding their short-term KPI-driven actions [6]. - The valuation of the Hang Seng Tech Index should not be assessed solely on absolute terms; it is essential to consider profitability, liquidity environment, and investor structure [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The expected profit growth for Hong Kong stocks in 2026 is projected to be between 3% and 4%, lower than the 6% growth in 2025 and below the A-share growth of 4% to 5% [8][9]. - The potential for Hong Kong stocks to outperform other markets hinges on three conditions: an increase in Federal Reserve easing expectations, a return of unique Hong Kong structures to market focus, and weakness in A-shares prompting increased southbound capital inflow [10].