伦敦豪宅步入“价值重估”窗口期：税制改革与全球资本调仓下的冷与热

Core Viewpoint - The global ultra-high-net-worth individuals are becoming more conservative in their investment decisions regarding London's ultra-prime real estate due to geopolitical uncertainties, regulatory pressures, and punitive tax measures [3][4]. Market Performance - In 2025, London recorded only 161 transactions of properties priced over $10 million, a significant decline of approximately 32.1% compared to the previous year, dropping from first to fifth place globally in this category [3][4]. - In Q4 2025, there were only 35 transactions of properties over $10 million in London, ranking seventh among 12 major markets monitored [3]. Market Dynamics - The London luxury property market is undergoing a profound transformation, with the end of the "Non-dom" tax status leading international buyers to reassess the costs of holding UK assets [3][6]. - There is unprecedented negotiation space in the market, with some properties seeing price reductions of around 15%, and discounts potentially larger when considering final negotiation outcomes [4][5]. Buyer Behavior - The market is experiencing a clear divide, with first-time buyers showing less volatility, while investment and upgrade buyers are hesitating due to high interest rates and economic instability [5]. - The end of the "Non-dom" status is prompting some wealthy individuals to relocate, with a trend of moving to tax-friendly locations like Abu Dhabi and Dubai [6]. Future Outlook - The London luxury property market is expected to stabilize by 2026, with core area prices having fallen by 10.3% from their peak in 2014, and some areas like Knightsbridge seeing declines close to 30% [7]. - Savills predicts that core area prices will stabilize by 2026 and expects an 8.1% cumulative growth by 2030 [7].