深夜！美国发布重磅数据，事关降息前景

Core Viewpoint - The latest U.S. inflation data indicates stable price trends, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February 2026 aligning with market expectations, although the impact of geopolitical tensions on oil prices has yet to be reflected in the data [2][4]. Inflation Data Summary - The seasonally adjusted CPI rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.4% year-on-year in February 2026, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.5% year-on-year, consistent with Dow Jones consensus predictions [4]. - Housing, the largest component of core CPI, saw a slight month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year rise of 3%, with rent increasing only 0.1%, marking the smallest monthly increase since January 2021 [4]. - Food prices rose by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year, while energy prices increased by 0.6% month-on-month and 0.5% year-on-year, indicating manageable fluctuations [4]. - Clothing prices surged by 1.3% month-on-month due to tariff pressures, while new car prices remained stable with a year-on-year increase of only 0.5%, and prices for used cars and auto insurance declined, contributing to lower overall prices [4]. Geopolitical Impact - The February CPI data was collected prior to the escalation of geopolitical tensions in Iran, which has led to significant increases in international oil prices, with New York crude futures surpassing $100 per barrel [5]. - The market anticipates that the inflationary effects of rising energy prices will become evident in future CPI data, introducing uncertainty into the U.S. inflation trajectory [5]. Federal Reserve Outlook - Following the CPI release, U.S. financial markets reacted mildly, with slight increases in Treasury yields across various maturities [7]. - The market expects the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates at the upcoming meeting, with a 99.4% probability of no change [9]. - Expectations for rate cuts later in the year have diminished, with the probability of maintaining rates unchanged in June rising to 57.3% from 24.8% a month prior [9]. - Analysts suggest that the stable inflation data will not alter the Fed's monetary policy in the short term, with future inflation trends heavily dependent on developments in the Middle East and energy prices [9].