格隆汇APP·2026-03-11 15:22Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the paradox of the securities sector achieving record profits while remaining undervalued, highlighting the disconnect between performance and valuation in the context of a bull market [5][16]. Historical Review - An analysis of eight historical bull markets over the past 20 years reveals that a "triple bottom" of valuation, policy, and macroeconomic conditions is essential for market rallies [7]. - Key periods include the 2005-2007 stock reform bull market, the 2008 stimulus-driven rally, and the 2020 registration system for the ChiNext board, all of which saw significant excess returns in the securities index [8]. The Mystery of Divergence - In 2025, the securities sector is expected to achieve its highest profits ever, with an annualized ROE of 8.7% in the first three quarters, yet the sector's PB remains around 1.4, indicating a significant valuation gap [16][18]. - Investor concerns stem from issues such as severe business homogenization and reliance on brokerage services, raising doubts about the sustainability of the current market rally [19]. Current Conditions - The conditions for a "triple bottom" are becoming clearer, with the securities sector's PB at a historical low, indicating substantial theoretical recovery potential [22][23]. - Liquidity is increasing, with non-bank deposits rising by 6.41 trillion, a 147% year-on-year increase, and regulatory measures are expanding the operational scope for securities firms [23][24]. ROE Improvement Path - The report emphasizes a shift from reliance on brokerage services to a more diversified revenue structure, which is expected to enhance ROE [28]. - Key strategies include reducing volatility in proprietary trading, expanding international operations, and innovating new business lines, all of which are anticipated to drive ROE growth [30][31]. Investment Strategy - The article suggests focusing on leading firms that can grow into "carrier brokers" and those that can outperform through differentiated development in wealth management and investment banking [36][37]. - Specific companies highlighted for potential investment include CITIC Securities, Galaxy Securities, Huatai Securities, Haitong Securities, and Orient Securities, which are positioned to benefit from industry consolidation and specific business advantages [38]. Conclusion - The article concludes that with low valuations and strong earnings, the securities sector is poised for a comeback, supported by historical patterns of market behavior and ongoing improvements in profitability structures [41].