美联储降息，又生变数

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of rising oil prices and tariffs on inflation, suggesting that the Federal Reserve may delay interest rate cuts until September due to these pressures [3]. Inflation Data Summary - The February CPI rose by 0.3% month-on-month, compared to a 0.2% increase in January, with a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, consistent with expectations [5]. - Energy prices increased by 0.6% month-on-month and 0.5% year-on-year, while food prices rose by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year [5]. - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.5% year-on-year, aligning with expectations [5]. - Housing prices, a major component of CPI, increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 3% year-on-year, with rent showing the smallest monthly increase since January 2021 at 0.1% [5]. Tariff and Cost Pressures - Despite most import tariffs being absorbed by companies, ongoing high input costs suggest that businesses may not continue to bear these expenses [6]. - The recent Supreme Court ruling has led to a 10% global tariff, which President Trump plans to increase to 15% [5]. Market Expectations for Federal Reserve Actions - Following the inflation data release, expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve have cooled, with a 99% probability of maintaining rates in the upcoming March meeting [7]. - The probability of a rate cut in April dropped to 11% from 21% a month prior, with traders now anticipating a potential cut in September [7]. Future Inflation Outlook - Analysts predict that the recent surge in oil prices could lead to increased inflationary pressures in the coming months, particularly as gasoline prices have risen over 18% since late February [8]. - The ongoing conflict in Iran is expected to exacerbate inflation, with potential increases in transportation and consumer goods costs due to higher energy prices [8]. - The impact of rising oil prices could elevate overall inflation by 0.15 to 0.30 percentage points, depending on the conflict's evolution [9].