国际能源署：中东冲突正引发全球石油市场史上最大规模供应中断

Core Viewpoint - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has significantly revised its oil supply forecast for this year, now expecting an increase of 1.1 million barrels per day, down from a previous estimate of 2.4 million barrels per day due to geopolitical tensions and demand disruptions [3][4]. Group 1: Oil Supply and Demand - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is causing the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market, with Gulf countries reducing oil production by at least 10 million barrels per day due to limited shipping capacity and saturated storage facilities [5]. - The IEA predicts that global oil supply will plummet by 8 million barrels per day in March, with over 4 million barrels per day of refining capacity at risk, particularly affecting the diesel and jet fuel markets due to export blockages [6]. Group 2: Strategic Oil Reserves - On March 11, the IEA announced that its 32 member countries agreed to release 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves, marking the largest release in the agency's history and the sixth time such action has been taken [8]. - While the release of strategic reserves provides a crucial buffer, it is considered a stop-gap measure, with the key to restoring the oil market lying in ensuring adequate insurance and physical protection for shipping to restore flow through the Strait of Hormuz [8]. Group 3: Oil Prices - Despite the announcement of the strategic reserve release, oil prices continued to rise, with WTI crude futures surpassing $92 per barrel, reflecting a daily increase of 4%, and Brent crude futures returning above $95, with a rise of over 3.7% [9].