霍尔木兹海峡又添新变数！油价上演“过山车”

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent volatility in international oil prices, influenced by geopolitical tensions and supply concerns, particularly regarding the Strait of Hormuz and the release of strategic oil reserves by the International Energy Agency (IEA) [3][4]. Geopolitical Tensions - The geopolitical situation surrounding the Strait of Hormuz has become increasingly complex, with conflicting statements from Iranian leaders regarding the passage of ships. Iran's Supreme Leader has vowed not to abandon revenge and to keep the Strait closed, while a deputy foreign minister indicated that some countries may still be allowed passage [4]. Supply Concerns - In response to potential supply disruptions due to escalating geopolitical conflicts, the IEA has approved the largest-ever emergency oil reserve release plan, amounting to 400 million barrels. This release is intended to address supply tightness caused by military actions involving the U.S. and Israel against Iran [5]. - Despite the significant volume of the release, analysts express skepticism about its effectiveness in fundamentally alleviating supply shortages. The slow delivery speed of the released reserves is a major concern, as the U.S. strategic reserves alone will take 120 days to deliver [6][7]. Market Outlook - Analysts from various institutions, including Huatai Futures and CITIC Futures, predict that the release of strategic reserves will not change the prevailing tight supply expectations. They emphasize that even with millions of barrels being released daily, the ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz will continue to exert upward pressure on oil prices [6][7]. - The market is expected to remain volatile and biased towards strength, as the situation in the Middle East remains uncertain, with potential for further price fluctuations depending on geopolitical developments [7].