国际能源署：霍尔木兹海峡原油和石油产品运输量，从美以军事打击伊朗前的日均约2000万桶骤降至目前的“极低水平”

Core Viewpoint - The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports that the global oil market is facing the most severe supply disruption in history due to ongoing tensions in the Middle East, with a significant supply gap expected if shipping does not recover quickly [1][2]. Group 1: Supply Disruption - The transportation volume of crude oil and petroleum products through the Strait of Hormuz has plummeted from an average of approximately 20 million barrels per day before military strikes on Iran to currently "extremely low levels" [1]. - Gulf countries have reduced their total daily crude oil production by at least 10 million barrels due to limited alternative shipping capacity and near-saturation of storage facilities [1]. - The IEA forecasts a drop of about 8 million barrels per day in global crude oil supply by March [1]. Group 2: Impact on Refining Capacity - The military strikes by the US and Israel have significantly impacted the global refined oil market, with over 3 million barrels per day of refining capacity in the Middle East currently offline [1]. - Other regions are also expected to face gradual limitations in refining due to insufficient raw material supply [1]. Group 3: Price Volatility and Strategic Reserves - Following the military actions against Iran, international oil prices have experienced extreme volatility, with Brent crude oil futures reaching nearly $120 per barrel [1]. - In response to the tightening global supply, IEA member countries agreed to release 400 million barrels from strategic oil reserves [1]. - Global crude oil and refined oil inventories reached 8.21 billion barrels in January, the highest level since February 2021 [1]. Group 4: Temporary Measures - The release of oil reserves is viewed as a temporary measure, with the ultimate impact of the US-Israel conflict on the oil and gas market, as well as the overall economy, depending on the duration of shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz [2].