居民存款搬家，降息降准可期

Core Viewpoint - The financial data for February 2026 shows a stable growth in social financing and a recovery in corporate financing demand, supported by proactive government policies and a loose liquidity environment [4][6]. Group 1: Financial Data Overview - Social financing growth remains high at 8.2%, with new social financing of 2.38 trillion yuan, an increase of 146.9 billion yuan year-on-year [4][6]. - M2 growth is steady at 9.0%, while M1 growth has increased to 5.9%, indicating a narrowing gap between the two [5][15]. - The total amount of new loans in February is 900 billion yuan, a decrease of 110 billion yuan year-on-year [10]. Group 2: Policy and Market Dynamics - Government bond issuance has been front-loaded, with net financing reaching 2.38 trillion yuan in the first two months, supporting social financing growth [4][9]. - The central bank is expected to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, including potential interest rate cuts [6][9]. - Direct financing has shown a mixed performance, with corporate bond financing decreasing while stock financing has improved [9]. Group 3: Credit Trends - Credit growth is slowing, primarily due to a decline in household loans, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.6 trillion yuan in February [10][11]. - Corporate short-term and medium-to-long-term loans have increased, with new corporate loans totaling 1.49 trillion yuan, up by 450 billion yuan year-on-year [10][11]. - The real estate market shows structural differentiation, with new home prices rising by 2.37% year-on-year while second-hand home prices fell by 8.78% [13]. Group 4: Deposits and Savings Behavior - Resident deposits increased by 3.11 trillion yuan, up by 2.5 trillion yuan year-on-year, indicating a continued trend of "deposit migration" [6][16]. - Non-bank deposits increased by 1.39 trillion yuan, reflecting a shift in savings behavior due to lower interest rates on traditional savings products [16]. - The M2-M1 gap has narrowed to 3.1 percentage points, suggesting improved liquidity conditions, although the extent of this improvement remains to be observed [15][16].