霍尔木兹海峡，“卡住”近百万吨化肥

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant disruption in the global fertilizer supply chain due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly affecting the availability and pricing of key fertilizers like urea and sulfur [4][5][6]. Group 1: Supply Chain Disruption - Approximately 98,000 tons of fertilizers are currently stranded in the Persian Gulf, with 21 bulk carriers loaded with urea, sulfur, and phosphates [4]. - Among these, 9 vessels are carrying about 463,000 tons of urea, 8 vessels hold 303,000 tons of sulfur, and 2 vessels contain 105,000 tons of phosphate [5]. - The Middle East is a major exporter of chemical fertilizers, producing 22 to 30 million tons of sulfur and 30 to 38 million tons of urea annually, with over half of the sulfur and more than 30% of urea exported through the Strait of Hormuz [5]. Group 2: Market Impact - If shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted for an extended period, fertilizer raw material supply could decrease by 30% to 50% [5]. - The global market is already feeling the effects, with 40% of urea, 54% of sulfur, and 71% of ammonia in Asia relying on imports from the Middle East [5]. - The German chemical industry is beginning to show early signs of supply chain disruptions due to the conflict, affecting ammonia, phosphates, helium, and sulfur [5]. Group 3: Price Surge - Fertilizer prices are directly linked to food inflation, with urea prices soaring by 32% from approximately $516 to $683 per ton within 12 days following the outbreak of conflict [7]. - As of March 9, the North American fertilizer price index has risen to over $810 per ton, surpassing the previous high of $776.85 set in August 2025 [7]. - The capital markets are responding to these supply disruptions, with companies like CF Industries seeing significant stock price increases, indicating investor concern over fertilizer supply and pricing [6].