美股点金丨紧盯油价！股指逼近关键均线支撑，抛售是否会加剧

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing decline in the U.S. stock market, particularly in technology and small-cap stocks, amidst geopolitical tensions and economic data indicating potential stagflation [3][4]. Economic Data and Market Reactions - The U.S. GDP growth for Q4 was revised down from 1.4% to 0.7%, and January durable goods orders were flat, significantly below expectations [4]. - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.1% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase to 3.1% in January [4]. - Job openings (JOLTs) increased, and initial jobless claims remained low, while the February Consumer Price Index (CPI) met expectations [4]. Interest Rate Expectations - The expectation for a Federal Reserve rate cut has sharply decreased, with Goldman Sachs pushing the timeline for the next cut from June to September [5]. - Market futures indicate a 24% probability of a rate cut in June, with only one cut expected by December, down from two prior to the geopolitical tensions [5]. Geopolitical Impact on Employment and Inflation - The conflict involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran is expected to impact the job market, with potential layoffs increasing unemployment rates [5]. - If global oil prices rise to around $140 per barrel, it could lead to mild recessions in the Eurozone, the UK, and Japan, while the U.S. economy may stagnate [6]. Stock Market Performance - The U.S. stock market has faced significant pressure, with the Dow Jones down 2%, Nasdaq down 1.3%, and S&P 500 down 1.6% over the past week [8]. - Financial and industrial sectors experienced the largest declines, with financials down 3.4% and industrials down 3.2% [8]. Future Market Outlook - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is expected to continue affecting U.S. consumer spending and economic growth, complicating the Federal Reserve's inflation control efforts [8]. - High oil prices are likely to suppress consumer confidence and spending, while also pushing overall inflation higher [9]. - The market is closely monitoring oil price trends and developments in the Iran conflict, as these factors are critical for future stock market movements [9].