同业存款利率自律管理或升级，余额宝收益破“1”在即？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the downward trend in yields for cash management and fixed-income products, driven by a declining interest rate environment and regulatory changes affecting interbank deposit rates [3][5][11]. Group 1: Interest Rate Trends - The annualized yield of a popular money market fund has dropped to 1.034%, reflecting a broader trend of declining yields in cash management products [3][5]. - Interbank deposit rates are expected to decrease further due to regulatory discussions aimed at managing these rates more transparently, which will likely pressure the yields of funds and wealth management products [5][11]. Group 2: Regulatory Changes - The People's Bank of China is considering stricter self-regulation for interbank deposit rates, which may include quantitative constraints on the proportion of deposits exceeding the 7-day reverse repo rate [7][8]. - By the end of 2024, new self-regulatory mechanisms will bind interbank deposit pricing to macro-prudential assessment frameworks, potentially impacting the volume and pricing of interbank deposits [7][8]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Analysts predict that if interbank deposit rates are lowered by 10 basis points, it could reduce banks' interest expenses by approximately 37 billion yuan annually, affecting the cost of liabilities [11][12]. - The average yield of wealth management products has already fallen to 1.98%, with many cash management products yielding below 1% [12][13]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The anticipated tightening of interbank deposit regulations is expected to lead to increased demand for certificates of deposit and short-term bonds, which may benefit from a lower cost of liabilities [10][14]. - The market has already begun to reflect these changes, with yields on one-year certificates of deposit dropping below 1.55% [14].