中东战火令通胀担忧重燃，“超级央行周”利率之箭“悬”了？

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing Middle East conflict has significantly impacted global energy markets, with oil prices surpassing $100 per barrel for the first time since 2022, raising concerns about inflation and affecting central bank policies worldwide [3][5]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and U.S. Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates amid conflicting pressures from inflation and employment, with a 40% probability of at least one rate cut this year [6][7]. - The February non-farm payroll report has raised concerns about a potential cooling labor market, which could prompt the Fed to act sooner than anticipated if economic growth slows [6][7]. - Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for rate cuts, now predicting cuts in September and December, later than previously expected due to rising oil prices complicating the inflation outlook [7]. Group 2: Bank of Japan's Policy Outlook - The Bank of Japan is anticipated to keep its policy rate at 0.75% but may signal intentions to normalize monetary policy, with over 37% of economists predicting a rate hike in April [9][10]. - The recent appointments by Prime Minister Kishi may indicate a preference for a slower pace of rate hikes, although the potential for a rate increase remains if the yen depreciates excessively [11][12]. Group 3: European Central Bank and Inflation Concerns - The European Central Bank is expected to maintain interest rates, but rising energy prices due to the Middle East conflict have led to speculation about earlier rate hikes [13][14]. - ECB President Christine Lagarde has emphasized the need to avoid a repeat of the inflation spikes seen during the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict, indicating a cautious approach to policy changes [13][14]. Group 4: Other Central Banks' Responses - The Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to raise rates again, reflecting ongoing price pressures and economic resilience [16]. - The Bank of England is expected to keep rates unchanged but may signal future rate increases due to rising inflation risks from energy costs [15]. - The Swiss National Bank is anticipated to maintain its rate at 0%, balancing inflationary pressures from rising energy prices against the strengthening Swiss franc [16].