专访冯子健：疫苗行业严重内卷、公众接种意愿下降，如何破局

Core Viewpoint - The recent expansion of the National Immunization Program (NIP) in China, as outlined in the 15th Five-Year Plan, is expected to significantly benefit the vaccine industry, which is currently facing challenges such as declining vaccination rates and intense competition [3][5]. Group 1: National Immunization Program Expansion - The NIP aims to dynamically optimize the types of vaccines included, which is a cost-effective measure to combat infectious diseases and will be funded by the government [3][4]. - The inclusion of vaccines like the HPV vaccine in the NIP marks a significant step, but many internationally recommended vaccines for children and adults are still not covered in China [5][6]. - Current spending on childhood vaccines in China is only $50 per capita annually, compared to $585 in Argentina and $336 in Brazil, indicating a substantial gap in investment [5]. Group 2: Industry Challenges and Competition - The domestic vaccine industry is currently in a downturn, characterized by fierce price competition that has not led to increased vaccination rates [7][8]. - The issue of homogenized competition is identified as a root cause of the industry's "involution," where multiple companies produce the same vaccine, leading to market saturation [8]. - The global vaccine market is highly concentrated, with major companies like Merck, Pfizer, GSK, and Sanofi controlling 71% of the market share, suggesting a need for similar consolidation in China [8]. Group 3: Public Perception and Vaccination Willingness - Public willingness to vaccinate is declining, potentially due to trust issues regarding vaccine safety and effectiveness, necessitating deeper investigation into these concerns [9]. - Transitioning from self-paid to publicly funded vaccinations is expected to significantly increase vaccination rates by removing financial barriers and enhancing public trust [9]. Group 4: Improving Vaccination Accessibility - The vaccination system in China is shifting towards covering all life stages, but there are still barriers to increasing adult vaccination rates [10][11]. - The ideal model for increasing vaccination rates involves integrating vaccination services into family doctor systems, which have proven effective in other countries [11]. - Current regulations on vaccination service points may hinder the expansion of vaccination services, suggesting a need for more flexible requirements to encourage participation from healthcare providers [12].