今晚，鲍威尔会放哪些猛料？

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates at 3.5% to 3.75% during the upcoming meeting, with no rate cuts anticipated in the near term due to geopolitical uncertainties stemming from the Middle East conflict [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Meeting Expectations - The likelihood of a rate cut during the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is nearly zero, with policymakers not expected to consider easing until at least September, and possibly only once this year [1]. - There is an ongoing internal debate within the Federal Reserve regarding the impact of the Middle East conflict on its dual mandate, particularly concerning inflation, which has been above the target for five consecutive years [3][4]. - The FOMC is likely to acknowledge the increased uncertainty in the economic outlook due to the Iran conflict and may adjust its description of economic activity to "moderate" rather than "robust" [6][7]. Group 2: Economic Projections and Rate Dot Plot - The upcoming meeting will feature the first release of the rate dot plot for the year, providing insights into the Fed officials' views on future interest rate trajectories [13]. - The median forecast for the federal funds rate in 2026 is expected to be between 3.25% and 3.50%, indicating a potential rate cut in 2026 and another in 2027 [15][17]. - The Fed's economic projections will likely show an increase in core inflation to 2.7% and overall inflation to 3.0%, while GDP growth is projected to decrease to 2.1% and unemployment to rise to 4.6% [19][20]. Group 3: Powell's Press Conference Insights - During the press conference, Chairman Powell is expected to emphasize the need for more time to assess the economic impact of the Iran conflict and the overall uncertainty in the current environment [21][22]. - Powell's comments regarding future interest rate paths will be crucial, as the market has largely discounted the possibility of a rate cut in April [22]. - There may be inquiries about Powell's future role at the Fed, especially in light of the ongoing confirmation process for his potential successor [23][24].