黄金，跌破4900美元

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have significantly declined, continuing a downward trend as investors weigh the risks of a more hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve amid rising oil prices, which heighten inflation concerns [1][3]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Spot gold fell below $4900 per ounce, marking a new low since February 18, with a daily decline of 2.6%. Spot silver dropped below $77 per ounce, down 2.2%, while palladium fell over 3% to $1,550.64 per ounce [1]. - High energy prices are raising transportation costs, exacerbating inflationary pressures. Although gold is traditionally seen as a hedge against inflation and uncertainty, the high interest rate environment diminishes its appeal by increasing the cost of holding physical gold and raising yields on interest-bearing assets [3][4]. - The ongoing Middle East conflict has entered its third week, yet gold prices remain unexpectedly weak. Reports of missile launches from Iran towards Tel Aviv in retaliation for the assassination of a security official have not bolstered gold prices as anticipated [3]. Group 2: Federal Reserve and Future Outlook - Investors are closely monitoring remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to gauge the central bank's policy path for the remainder of 2026. The futures market currently anticipates only one 25 basis point rate cut this year, likely in September, with another cut not expected until the end of 2027 [4]. - Long-term drivers such as central bank gold purchases, stagflation risks, and the need for diversified asset allocation remain in place, suggesting that gold prices may still rise by the end of 2026 [5]. - For significant increases in gold prices, two conditions must be met: clear signals from the Federal Reserve indicating a willingness to cut rates despite inflation pressures, and a shift in market expectations regarding the duration of the ongoing conflict [5].