原油燃料油波动加剧，上期所调整套保额度控交割风险

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in crude oil and fuel oil prices driven by geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict between the U.S. and Iran, which has led to supply disruptions in the Middle East [4][5]. Group 1: Price Movements - As of March 18, 2026, Brent crude oil futures rose over 4% and WTI crude oil futures increased over 2%, following a peak of $119.50 and $113.41 per barrel respectively on March 9 [3]. - Domestic crude oil futures also experienced volatility, peaking at 823.3 yuan per barrel on March 10, before closing at 735.40 yuan per barrel on March 18 [3]. - Shanghai low-sulfur fuel oil futures reached a historical high of 5930 yuan per ton on March 16, closing at 5493.00 yuan per ton on March 18 [3]. Group 2: Geopolitical Impact - The escalation of the U.S.-Iran conflict has led to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting approximately 20% of global crude oil and over 35% of high-sulfur fuel oil supplies [4]. - The increase in Russian fuel exports is insufficient to compensate for the reduction in Middle Eastern fuel exports [4]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Adjustments - The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced adjustments to the hedging limits for crude oil and fuel oil contracts as they approach delivery months, requiring participants to apply for approval to hold positions [6][7]. - This adjustment aims to mitigate delivery risks and prevent excessive speculative positions during extreme market conditions [7][8]. - The changes are expected to stabilize the market and ensure that entities can manage their risk effectively without impacting normal trading and delivery processes [8].