美联储今年或降息一次，鲍威尔：已做好“临时留任”准备

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the interest rate range at 3.50%-3.75%, with a slight upward revision in economic and inflation forecasts, while indicating a potential rate cut later this year [3][5][7]. Economic Outlook - Recent economic activity has been expanding at a steady pace, with stable employment growth and little change in unemployment rates, although inflation remains high [5][6]. - The Fed has raised its economic growth forecast for this year by 0.1 percentage points to 2.4%, and for 2027 and 2028 by 0.3 and 0.2 percentage points, respectively [7]. - Core PCE inflation is projected to rise to 2.7% this year, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from previous forecasts, indicating persistent price pressures [7][8]. Geopolitical Factors - The Fed acknowledged the uncertainty surrounding the impact of the Middle East conflict on the U.S. economy, particularly regarding oil prices and inflation [6][9]. - Oil prices surged due to the conflict, with Brent crude futures exceeding $109 per barrel, which could exert downward pressure on spending and upward pressure on inflation [17]. Interest Rate Projections - The FOMC's interest rate expectations remain unchanged, with a median rate of 3.4% for 2026, suggesting one potential rate cut [12][14]. - There is significant internal disagreement within the Fed regarding future rate cuts, with some members advocating for aggressive cuts while others prefer to maintain current rates [12][14]. Labor Market and Inflation - The labor market is expected to remain resilient, with the unemployment rate projected at 4.4% for this year, unchanged from previous estimates [8]. - The Fed's approach to monetary policy will continue to be data-driven, balancing the risks of inflation against labor market conditions [14][15]. Credit Demand and Economic Concerns - Recent data indicates a rise in credit demand, particularly for credit card limits, with the approval rate for new credit at its lowest since June 2021 [18]. - Concerns about economic growth and potential stagflation are prevalent, as high inflation and labor market conditions complicate the Fed's dual mandate of full employment and price stability [18].