国际燃气联盟副主席：天然气将是长期核心能源，中国市场潜力巨大

Core Viewpoint - The future of energy is not about energy substitution but energy expansion, with natural gas being a key energy source for low-carbon development [3]. Group 1: Global Energy Trends - By 2035, fossil fuels will still account for over 70% of the global energy mix, with oil peaking around that time and natural gas continuing to grow [3]. - The share of fossil fuels in the global energy mix decreased from 82% in 2015 to 80% in 2025, with natural gas being the only fossil fuel to increase its share from 22% to 25% [3][4]. - Global natural gas consumption grew by 23% over the past decade, reaching 4.3 trillion cubic meters by 2025 [3]. Group 2: Role of Natural Gas - Natural gas will play a crucial role in replacing high-carbon energy sources, providing grid flexibility, and ensuring energy security [3][4]. - It can reduce carbon emissions by 50%-55% in urban usage, 40% in power generation, and 20% in heavy-duty transport and maritime shipping [3]. - The global natural gas consumption is expected to rise from 4.3 trillion cubic meters to nearly 4.8 trillion cubic meters in the next decade, with LNG consumption projected to increase from 430 million tons to around 600 million tons by 2030 [4]. Group 3: China's Natural Gas Demand - China has a promising outlook for natural gas demand, especially in the context of building a new energy system [5]. - By 2030, China's total electricity consumption is expected to reach 13 trillion kilowatt-hours, with natural gas playing a significant role in sectors that cannot be fully electrified [5]. - If 10% of coal is replaced by renewable energy and another 10% by natural gas, China's natural gas demand could reach at least 800 billion cubic meters by 2040, nearly double the 2025 consumption [5]. Group 4: LNG Market Dynamics - The global LNG market is transitioning to a buyer's market, with LNG pricing power shifting towards importing countries [5]. - By 2030, global LNG liquefaction capacity is expected to exceed 90 million tons, with the number of export terminals increasing from fewer than 50 to over 70 [5]. - LNG prices are anticipated to gradually decline from 2027 to 2030, driven by ample global supply and investment security [5]. Group 5: Short-term Price Influences - Short-term global energy prices have surged due to Middle Eastern tensions, with uncertain timelines for price corrections [6]. - If geopolitical tensions ease in the next few months, global LNG prices are expected to moderate in the latter half of the year [6]. - China should prioritize building strategic natural gas reserves to stabilize supply and prices, given its 40% dependency on foreign natural gas [6]. Group 6: Domestic Production and Supply Security - China is enhancing its natural gas supply security through initiatives like the "Seven-Year Action Plan," aiming for a production increase of over 6% by 2025 [6]. - Domestic natural gas production is projected to exceed 310 billion cubic meters by 2030, with LNG receiving capacity surpassing 20 million tons per year [6].