中东冲突后WTO发布首份全球贸易报告！预测今年全球货物贸易增长率放缓至1.9%

Core Viewpoint - The WTO's latest report indicates a slowdown in global trade growth for 2026, following a surge in AI-enabled product trade in 2025, with the growth rate expected to decline from 4.6% in 2025 to 1.9% in 2026 due to normalization of trade activities after a period of heightened imports and AI-related demand [3][4]. Global Trade Forecast - The global goods trade growth rate is projected to return to normal levels after the AI-related trade surge and preemptive stockpiling of imports, with a forecasted growth of 2.6% in 2027 [3][4]. - The overall growth rate for goods and services trade in 2026 is expected to be 2.7%, down from 4.7% in 2025, while global GDP growth is anticipated to slightly decline from 2.9% in 2025 to 2.8% in 2026 and 2027 [7][8]. Impact of Energy Prices and Conflicts - High energy prices and ongoing conflicts in the Middle East pose significant risks to trade growth, potentially leading to a 0.3 percentage point reduction in GDP growth forecasts and a 0.5 percentage point reduction in trade growth forecasts for 2026 [7][8]. - If energy prices remain elevated throughout 2026, the actual growth rate of global goods trade could drop to 1.4%, with service trade growth also slowing to 4.1% [7][8]. AI-Enabled Product Demand - In 2025, the demand for AI-enabled products surged, contributing to a 21.9% increase in trade value, rising from $3.43 trillion to $4.18 trillion, despite these products only accounting for one-sixth of total global trade [11]. - AI-enabled products contributed 42% of the total increase in global trade in 2025, with key items like chips and semiconductors receiving exemptions from most new tariffs [11]. Regional Trade Predictions - In the baseline scenario, Asia is expected to lead in goods import growth at 3.3%, followed by Africa (3.2%), South America (2.5%), Europe (1.3%), and the Middle East (1.0%) [13]. - For goods exports, Asia is again projected to lead at 3.5%, with South America also at 3.5%, while the Middle East's export growth is expected to slow significantly to 0.6% [13].