黄金、白银暴跌，遭全球抛售

Core Viewpoint - The global sell-off of assets has led to a significant drop in gold and silver prices, driven by inflation risks prompting central banks to end monetary easing and potentially restart tightening measures [2]. Group 1: Price Movements - As of March 19, the price of gold for April delivery fell to $4605.70 per ounce, a decrease of 5.93%, while silver for May delivery dropped to $71.215 per ounce, down 8.22% [2]. - Analysts attribute the volatility in gold and silver prices to previous significant gains, which led to profit-taking by investors following negative news [2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. Labor Department reported a decrease of 8,000 in initial jobless claims for the week ending March 14, bringing the total to 205,000, the lowest level since January of the previous year [3]. - A sharp sell-off in the U.S. Treasury market has pushed yields higher, reducing expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, which has negatively impacted precious metals [3]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - The ongoing geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East is expected to prolong high oil prices, which, combined with weakening expectations for Fed rate cuts, exerts continuous downward pressure on precious metals [3][4]. - Analysts note that rising energy costs due to geopolitical tensions are creating inflationary pressures that are detrimental to gold prices [4]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The future trajectory of precious metals is largely dependent on the intensity and duration of the Middle East conflict, with analysts suggesting that gold remains under pressure in a strong dollar and high oil price environment [5]. - Despite geopolitical risks, the market's focus remains on the potential for military conflict to disrupt oil supplies, which could lead to renewed interest in gold as a hedge against inflation [5]. Group 5: Long-term Investment Perspective - Long-term, the allocation value of gold remains intact, with expectations that central banks will continue to purchase gold amid global geopolitical uncertainties and rising U.S. debt [6]. - Wells Fargo projects a year-end target price for gold between $6100 and $6300 per ounce, citing structural support from ongoing central bank purchases and the gradual dilution of the dollar's long-term credit [6].