俄罗斯央行降息50个基点

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Russia has lowered the benchmark interest rate by 0.5 percentage points to 15% for the second time this year, indicating a continuous effort to manage inflation and assess both domestic and external risks [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Changes - The Central Bank of Russia has now reduced the benchmark interest rate for the seventh consecutive time [1] - The bank anticipates that the inflation rate for the entire year of 2026 will decrease to between 4.5% and 5.5%, with expectations of approaching 4% in the second half of the year, down from the current rate of 5.9% [1] Group 2: External Influences - The Central Bank's Governor, Nabiullina, mentioned that the situation in the Middle East could potentially increase global economic costs, which may eventually impact prices in the Russian market [1] - The assessment of the overall impact of external events on the Russian economy is considered premature at this stage [1] Group 3: Currency and Inflation Outlook - Nabiullina indicated that the conflict in the Middle East might negatively affect Russian export logistics, with the extent of the impact depending on the duration of the conflict [1] - In the short term, the situation may support export revenues and the ruble exchange rate, but could later become a factor driving inflation [1] - The current exchange rate is influenced by low oil prices in January and the suspension of budget rules, making it too early to discuss a clear weakening trend of the ruble [1] - The Central Bank will continue to proceed with rate cuts in a smooth and balanced manner to ensure inflation returns to 4% [1]