降息3次？美联储，突传重大变数！

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve officials have indicated a potential shift in monetary policy, with discussions around interest rate cuts and the impact of geopolitical tensions on inflation and the economy [2][4][5]. Group 1: Interest Rate Outlook - Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michelle Bowman expects the Fed to cut interest rates three times this year, despite concerns about the labor market [2][3]. - Fed Governor Christopher Waller stated he would support rate cuts later this year if signs of labor market weakness emerge, while also being cautious about inflation pressures from geopolitical events [4][5]. - The CME FedWatch Tool indicates that traders now see a greater than 30% chance of a rate hike by the end of the year, contrasting with the expectation of rate cuts [2][5]. Group 2: Geopolitical Impact - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has led to rising oil prices, which may contribute to renewed inflationary pressures in the U.S., potentially delaying rate cuts or prompting rate hikes [2][4][6]. - Waller highlighted that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz could lead to increased inflation, affecting core inflation metrics [4]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Leadership Changes - President Trump has publicly supported the investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell, which may complicate the confirmation process for Kevin Warsh as Powell's potential successor [7][8]. - The investigation focuses on cost overruns related to the renovation of the Fed's headquarters, raising concerns about the independence of the Fed from political influence [8][9]. - Powell's term as Fed Chair ends in May, but he will continue to serve until a successor is confirmed [10].