“美联储加息”噩梦恐成真？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising concerns on Wall Street regarding the potential for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates due to escalating conflicts in the Middle East and the subsequent surge in international oil prices, which may lead to renewed inflation in the U.S. [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Interest Rate Expectations - Wall Street traders estimate a greater than 30% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by the end of the year, while the probability of a rate cut stands at only 6.1% [2] - Despite the current market turmoil, which has seen U.S. stocks decline for four consecutive weeks, economists at Bank of America believe that the likelihood of a rate cut in 2026 remains higher than that of a rate hike, especially if the impact of rising oil prices subsides [2] Group 2: Conditions for Rate Hike - Stable Labor Market: A primary condition for the Fed to consider raising rates is a stable labor market, with the unemployment rate needing to remain below 4.5%. Recent reports indicate the unemployment rate fluctuating between 4.3% and 4.6%, with a slight increase to 4.4% in February and a surprising drop of 92,000 in non-farm payrolls [3][4] - Rising Inflation: The Fed would also need to observe a broad increase in core inflation, not limited to energy prices, driven by the ongoing conflict in Iran. Currently, the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz primarily affects energy exports, limiting inflationary pressures to the energy sector [5][6] - Continuation of Powell as Chair: The final necessary condition for a rate hike is the continued tenure of Jerome Powell as the Fed Chair. His term is set to expire in May, and any delay in confirming his successor, Kevin Warsh, could impact the Fed's decision-making [7][9][10]