降息3次？美联储突传重大变数！

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates three times this year, amidst concerns about the job market and rising inflation due to geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East [2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Outlook - Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michelle Bowman expects three rate cuts this year, despite concerns about the labor market [3]. - Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller indicated he would support rate cuts later this year if signs of labor market weakness emerge [3]. - The CME FedWatch Tool shows a rising probability of rate hikes, now over 30% by year-end, due to inflation concerns [2]. Group 2: Geopolitical Impact on Inflation - The ongoing Middle East conflict has led to rising oil prices, which may contribute to renewed inflationary pressures in the U.S. [2][4]. - Waller noted that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz could lead to greater inflationary pressures, affecting core inflation [3]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Leadership Changes - President Trump has publicly supported the investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell, which may delay the confirmation of Kevin Warsh as his potential successor [6][7]. - The investigation focuses on cost overruns related to the renovation of the Fed's headquarters, raising concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve [7][8]. - Powell's term as Fed Chair ends in May, but his role as a board member continues until 2028 [9].