中东冲突下高油价情景如何冲击全球贸易，WTO这样计算

Core Viewpoint - The WTO's report indicates that the ongoing Middle East conflict is likely to impact global trade through various channels, including rising oil prices, slowing GDP growth, and potential fertilizer supply shortages, which threaten food security in vulnerable economies [3][4]. Group 1: Global Trade Impact - If high energy prices persist for the remainder of the year, global GDP growth is expected to be revised down from a baseline forecast of 2.8% to 2.5% for 2026, with a rebound anticipated in 2027 [3][4]. - The WTO predicts a 0.5 percentage point downward adjustment in the growth rate of global goods trade for 2026, bringing it down to 1.4%, with a recovery to 2.8% in 2027 [3][4]. - The service trade growth rate is projected to decline from 4.8% to 4.1% under the influence of the conflict, with a subsequent increase to 5.2% in 2027 [8][12]. Group 2: Energy Price Assumptions - The WTO's adjusted forecast assumes that oil prices will remain at $90 per barrel and LNG prices at $16 per million British thermal units for the year [4][10]. - The report emphasizes that short-term fluctuations in energy prices are not the primary concern, and the current assumptions are deemed appropriate [9][10]. Group 3: Regional Trade Effects - In a high energy price scenario, Europe's goods export value is expected to shrink by 0.6%, compared to a 0.5% growth in the baseline scenario [12]. - The European industrial sector is particularly sensitive to high energy prices due to its reliance on natural gas imports, which could lead to significant production cuts [12][14]. - The report highlights that the conflict threatens key global shipping corridors, with a drastic reduction in shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, impacting global transport services [14].