记者观察：连跌四周，美国股市怎么了？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the recent military conflict in the Middle East on the U.S. stock market, highlighting a significant decline in major stock indices and a shift in investor sentiment towards defensive sectors, particularly energy, while technology stocks face increased selling pressure [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - As of March 20, U.S. stock indices have experienced four consecutive weeks of decline, the first occurrence since February 2025 [1]. - The technology sector, previously a leader in market gains, has seen a year-to-date decline of 9% among the "seven giants" of technology [1]. - In contrast, the energy sector has thrived, becoming a "safe haven" for investors amid rising geopolitical tensions [1]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment and Risk - The military conflict has negatively affected investor risk appetite, leading to a significant withdrawal of funds from risk assets like U.S. stocks [1]. - The shift in capital flows has resulted in a continuous outflow of funds from the technology sector, particularly affecting high-valuation stocks [2]. Group 3: Inflation and Monetary Policy - The surge in energy prices has raised inflation expectations, constraining the Federal Reserve's policy options [2]. - WTI crude oil prices reached a peak of over $118 per barrel, marking a 47% increase in a month, while Brent crude rose by 48% [2]. - The rising inflation expectations have altered market predictions regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with the possibility of delaying or even reversing previous easing plans [3]. Group 4: Corporate Earnings Outlook - Rising energy prices are increasing production costs for companies, particularly in manufacturing, transportation, and retail, thereby compressing profit margins [3]. - Concurrently, inflationary pressures are expected to weaken consumer purchasing power, leading to a decline in demand and negatively impacting corporate revenue growth [3]. Group 5: Sector-Specific Insights - U.S. oil companies, such as Western Oil, ConocoPhillips, Chevron, and ExxonMobil, have seen stock price increases exceeding 30% this year due to the conflict's impact on oil supply [4]. - The ongoing supply constraints, coupled with steady demand, have led to a significant imbalance in the energy market, driving oil prices higher and benefiting U.S. energy companies [5]. Group 6: Broader Financial Concerns - There are concerns regarding the potential spread of a private credit crisis, as investors withdraw from private credit funds due to fears about the impact of artificial intelligence on traditional software sectors [5]. - Major financial institutions have faced significant redemptions from private credit funds, raising concerns about their profitability and the risk of insolvency for smaller financial entities [5].