美伊战火，正颠覆三条关键供应链

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East, particularly the impact of the Iran-Israel war, has severely disrupted not only the oil supply chain but also the flow of other critical raw materials and commodities, including helium, pharmaceuticals, and fertilizers [1][2]. Group 1: Helium Supply Impact - The conflict has significantly damaged global helium supply, which is crucial for high-end AI hardware and healthcare [3][5]. - Following the Israeli attack on Iranian gas fields, Iran retaliated by targeting a Qatari LNG plant, which accounts for nearly one-fifth of global LNG trade and is a key source of helium [3][4]. - Current market losses are approximately 5.2 million cubic meters of helium per month, with prices having already doubled and potentially increasing by an additional 25% to 50% if disruptions continue [6]. Group 2: Pharmaceutical Supply Disruption - The war has caused interruptions in global pharmaceutical trade, particularly affecting short-shelf-life medications, with about 20% of air transport for pharmaceuticals being obstructed [7][8]. - Critical medications, including vaccines, insulin, and cancer treatment drugs, are at risk due to disrupted supply routes [7]. - The duration of the conflict will determine the severity of its impact on the pharmaceutical industry [9]. Group 3: Fertilizer Supply Challenges - The shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have also affected the flow of fertilizers, which are vital for agriculture [10]. - The UN estimates that about one-third of global maritime fertilizers are transported through this strait, leading to rising fertilizer prices and increased production costs for farmers [11]. - Consumers may face higher food prices as a result of these supply shocks, compounded by already high input costs for farmers [12][13].