1分钱一度电，分布式光伏彻底“变天”了

Core Viewpoint - The era of distributed photovoltaic (PV) systems facing market challenges has arrived, marked by extremely low electricity prices, such as 0.01 yuan per kilowatt-hour in regions like Shandong and Jiangsu [5][6][10]. Policy Background - The introduction of the "full market settlement for distributed renewable energy" policy on January 1, 2026, signifies a shift from guaranteed pricing to market-driven pricing for distributed PV systems, exposing them to price fluctuations [10][11]. - This policy change reflects the increasing scale of renewable energy installations, which reached 1.84 billion kilowatts by the end of 2025, necessitating a move away from guaranteed purchase models [11][12]. Market Impact - The low electricity price of 0.01 yuan per kilowatt-hour is not constant but occurs mainly during peak solar output and low system demand periods, significantly lowering overall electricity prices [12]. - For example, a distributed PV project in Jiangsu generated 11,946 kilowatt-hours in January, resulting in a market price of 0.259 yuan per kilowatt-hour, a drastic drop from the previous guaranteed price of 0.39 yuan per kilowatt-hour [12]. Competitive Landscape - Different types of renewable energy sources exhibit varying market competitiveness, with wind power and larger-scale PV systems outperforming smaller distributed PV systems [14]. - The disparity in competitiveness is influenced by the capacity of local power grids to absorb renewable energy, with regions like Shandong experiencing overcapacity issues [14][15]. Challenges for Distributed PV - The high proportion of distributed PV installations in regions like Shandong (over 60 million kilowatts) raises concerns about their ability to cope with market volatility and pricing challenges [15][16]. - Smaller distributed PV systems, particularly household installations, lack the capacity to participate actively in the market, making them vulnerable to price fluctuations [16]. Strategic Recommendations - The emergence of extremely low electricity prices serves as a warning for the distributed PV sector, indicating the need for more strategic project planning that considers demand, infrastructure, and grid capacity [16].