李大霄：市场无需恐慌 当前调整实则是对4000点的夯实过程

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustment in the A-share market is primarily driven by external factors, particularly the escalation of the US-Iran conflict, which has led to a surge in international oil prices and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, causing global financial market turbulence [1][2]. Market Adjustment Reasons - The adjustment is seen as a process to solidify the 4000-point level, with the 3000-point mark having established a solid support level over 17 years, making a retest of this level highly unlikely [3][4]. - The market's previous bullish sentiment contributed to a delayed reaction to risks, culminating in the recent significant market adjustment [1]. Technical Analysis - The A-share market structure is characterized by a double bottom and triple top formation, with the current adjustment being a normal retracement phase [2]. - Key historical points include the formation of a significant bottom at 2635 points on February 5, 2024, and a triple top around 4197 points on March 3, 2026, which is considered a "false high" [2]. Future Market Outlook - The market is expected to experience a rebound due to stabilizing forces, but this should be viewed as a rebound rather than a reversal, as the market continues to seek new support levels [2]. - The low points are gradually rising, with projections indicating that the 2026 market low will be higher than the 2025 low [2]. Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to differentiate between strong and weak stocks, as significant ETF funds (700 billion to 1 trillion) expected to be liquidated in early 2026 will provide crucial support for quality stocks [5]. - Early research and positioning in quality stocks are recommended to capitalize on potential market opportunities [5].