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Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for interest rate hikes by major central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve, in response to rising inflation expectations driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and increasing oil prices [2][8]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Outlook - Traders have increased bets on a 20 basis point rate hike by the Federal Reserve by the end of the year, up from previous expectations of an 8 basis point increase [4]. - The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 26.3% probability of a rate hike by the end of the year, while the probability of maintaining current rates is the highest at 65.3% [5]. - Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Milan stated that there is currently no need to consider a rate hike, emphasizing the importance of gathering more information before making policy decisions [7]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Economic Indicators - The U.S. stock market has experienced its longest decline in a year, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising by 13.4 basis points, and the 5-year yield surpassing 4% for the first time since July [6]. - Milan expressed concerns that high oil prices could impact inflation and economic growth, but he maintains his expectation for four rate cuts in 2026 [7]. Group 3: European Central Bank and Bank of England - The European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) face greater inflation pressures, with the BoE's Governor warning of a potential rise in inflation to around 3.5% by 2026 [9]. - Analysts predict that the BoE may implement rate hikes in April and July to combat inflation, while the ECB is expected to raise rates twice this year, with the first hike possibly occurring in April [10]. - The ECB has revised its inflation forecast for 2026 from 1.9% to 2.6%, with extreme scenarios suggesting inflation could peak at 6.3% in early 2027 if energy supply disruptions persist [9][10].