各类资产对中东局势充分定价了吗？黄金、股债不同

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the dual structure of market trading logic since the outbreak of the conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran, highlighting the impact on global energy markets and potential economic risks, including stagflation in the U.S. economy due to rising oil prices [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions to Conflict - The ongoing conflict has led to significant declines in global stock markets, with major markets like the U.S., A-shares, and Japanese stocks experiencing panic selling [2]. - The expectation of the Federal Reserve not lowering interest rates in the short term has influenced various asset classes differently, with bonds reflecting the most pessimistic outlook [2][3]. - A critical oil price level of $100 is identified as a watershed, potentially raising inflation from 2.8% to 3.5%, complicating the Fed's ability to lower rates [2]. Group 2: Asset Class Performance - Different asset classes have incorporated varying expectations regarding the conflict and oil price trajectories, with equities showing insufficient adjustment to the ongoing high oil prices [2][3]. - The U.S. stock market may face a potential 10% correction if the conflict escalates further, while the Chinese market shows signs of resilience due to policy support and lower valuations in certain indices [3]. Group 3: Middle Eastern Investment Trends - Middle Eastern funds are increasingly focusing on long-term strategic investments in Hong Kong IPOs, moving beyond previous interests in the electric vehicle sector [4]. - The investment strategy of Middle Eastern sovereign funds includes a preference for sectors like renewable energy, digital economy, and high-dividend stocks, while also considering real estate and infrastructure for safety and compliance [6]. - Despite the current lack of significant capital inflow from the Middle East into Hong Kong, the region's mature asset management market is well-positioned to attract future investments [6].