独家对话WTO首席经济学家：高额的油价何时恢复正常？| 欧陆志

Core Viewpoint - The World Trade Organization (WTO) has released its annual report on global trade outlook and statistics, emphasizing a baseline growth scenario that does not account for energy price shocks [2] Group 1: Impact of Middle East Conflict - The WTO was aware of the potential for conflict in the Middle East prior to the report's completion, allowing them to prepare scenario analyses related to the conflict [2] - If the conflict is short-lived, the impact may be temporary, with a quick recovery expected; however, a prolonged crisis could lead to structural increases in fuel and transportation costs, reduced transit activities, and shifts in global travel and trade patterns [3] - The duration of the oil price shock is critical, with the WTO assuming oil prices could rise to $90 per barrel and natural gas prices to $16 per million British thermal units, maintaining these levels throughout 2026 before gradually returning to historical norms [3][4] Group 2: Economic Predictions and Sensitivity - The WTO's analysis indicates that if oil and LNG prices remain high throughout 2026, global GDP growth could be reduced by 0.3 percentage points, with global trade growth declining by 0.5 percentage points, and regions heavily reliant on energy imports facing declines of up to 1.0 percentage points [3] - The team has conducted robustness tests on their assumptions regarding average oil prices for the year, asserting that their current assumptions are appropriate, with plans for reassessment in the coming months [4][5] Group 3: Changes in Global Trade Dynamics - The ongoing conflict may alter the role of Gulf countries as global trade hubs, particularly if geopolitical factors lead economies to reduce dependence on external energy sources, including those from the Gulf region [7] - This reduction in dependence could affect not only energy trade but also the overall volume and influence of transportation and tourism services in the region [7] Group 4: Importance of Confidence in Trade - The stability of global trade is significantly influenced by the confidence of businesses in the existing rules-based system, which is essential for maintaining stable and predictable trading relationships [8]