地缘风险预期改善,高配中国资产获共识
第一财经·2026-03-26 06:33

Core Viewpoint - The recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have highlighted the safety and certainty of Chinese assets, leading to a recovery in the A-share market with significant index gains [3][4]. Market Performance - On March 25, the A-share market saw a strong rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.3% to close at 3931.84 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.95% to 13801 points. The total trading volume reached 2.19 trillion yuan, a significant increase from the previous day [6][7]. - The market sentiment has improved, with major indices showing collective strength and a notable increase in trading volume, indicating a recovery from previous declines [6][7]. Geopolitical Impact - The easing of geopolitical tensions has contributed to a more favorable market environment, with a focus on the potential for a ceasefire in the Middle East and its implications for global oil prices [4][8]. - Analysts suggest that the market's core concern remains external geopolitical conflicts, but fears of escalation have lessened, allowing for a technical recovery in stock prices [8][10]. Investment Sentiment - Foreign investment interest in Chinese stocks has increased, with a notable shift in sentiment among international investors, as evidenced by a decrease in the percentage of those viewing Chinese stocks as "non-investable" [13]. - Despite the rising interest, actual foreign allocations to Chinese stocks remain conservative, indicating room for improvement in investment flows [13]. Sector Analysis - The market is transitioning from a defensive stance to a focus on growth sectors, particularly in AI and green energy, as the main themes driving investment [8][14]. - Key sectors expected to perform well include power equipment, machinery, coal, public utilities, electronics, and telecommunications, particularly in light of anticipated earnings improvements [14]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the A-share market will continue to benefit from supportive fiscal and monetary policies, with an expected earnings growth rate of 8% for all A-shares in 2026 [10][12]. - The investment strategy should adapt to the speed of sector rotation, with recommendations to focus on structural themes and avoid chasing momentum during rapid changes [14][15].

地缘风险预期改善,高配中国资产获共识 - Reportify